Behind The Memo - Bull Market Rhymes

2000-12-31-were-not-in-1999-anymore

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: We're Not In 1999 Anymore, Toto In "The Wizard of Oz," a tornado carried Dorothy and her dog, Toto, to a land ruled by a mysterious despot in whom people had vested extraordinary powers., A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2000-05-01-irrational-exuberance

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: Irrational Exuberance Recent years have witnessed great excesses in the stock market., Thus I will attempt below to combine a number of ideas and bits of empirical data I've stored up over recent weeks in a memo which expresses my views and hopefully is of value to you., That being the case, I'm not going to miss the opportunity to celebrate the correctness to date of my last memo, “bubble. com.”, The table below lists the stocks mentioned in that memo and their declines from its publication at year end, and from the highs reached since then, to the April trough, This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2001-10-04-what-lies-ahead

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: WhatLiesAhead?, Writing my client memos gives me great satisfaction., I must admit that I haven't been looking forward to writing a memo about the economic and investment implications of the attacks., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2002-07-26-quo-vadis

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: Howard M a r k s R e : Q u o V a d i s ?, I've been cautious for a long time – in fact, I don't remember ever having written a bullish piece on stocks – and this memo is unlikely to be any different., A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d 9 Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2006-03-27-it-is-what-it-is

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: ItIsWhat It Is My first exposure to the phrase that serves as the title for this memo came in 1995, a few days before Oaktree opened its doors., In November 2004 I wrote a memo entitled “Risk and Return Today.”, Mark Cutis of Shinsei Bank sent me his memo entitled, “Market of no fear!”, I recently heard a speech in which a top buyout manager said his fund’s goal (per my memory) is to buy companies at fair prices and make them worth more., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2006-06-13-returns-absolute-returns-and-risk

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: Returns,AbsoluteReturns and Risk UWhat’s In a Name?, My memos often touch on the subject of investors’ foibles, one of the worst of which consists of their tendency to pay too much attention to labels (and too little to substance), UAbsolute-Return Investing My memos are often sparked by something I stumble on, and this one is no exception., When I wrote the memo “Risk” in February, I thought I had hit on something when I observed that risk is not measurable even after the fact., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.

2007-09-10-now-its-all-bad

A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d Memo to: OaktreeClients From: HowardMarks Re: NowIt’sAllBad?, It all reminds me of a point I made in my second memo, “First Quarter Performance” (April 1991): Although the midpoint of its arc best describes the location of the pendulum “on average,” it actually spends very little of its time there., A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v e d 15 Legal Information and Disclosures This memorandum expresses the views of the author as of the date indicated and such views are subject to change without notice., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose., This memorandum, including the information contained herein, may not be copied, reproduced, republished, or posted in whole or in part, in any form without the prior written consent of Oaktree.

2013-08-05-the-role-of-confidence

That’s what this memo is about., Confidence Today Back in September, I wrote a memo entitled “On Uncertain Ground.”, In mid-2007 I was working on a memo with the projected title “The Mother of All Cycles.”, In the memo I complained that every asset class, every asset and every region was appreciating., Thus that memo was followed by “It’s All Good . . .

Economic Reality

All Rights Reserved Follow us: Memo to: Oaktree Clients From: Howard Marks Re: Economic Reality Addendum, June 13: There’s been a lot of response since the memo that follows was originally published on May 26., That’s what caused me to write the memo: in politics and government – unlike the real world – the word “or” often goes out the window, replaced by “and.”, I wrote this memo to help readers understand why, The realities of economics are the subject of this memo., This memorandum is being made available for educational purposes only and should not be used for any other purpose.